Texas is set to host Mississippi State this Saturday.

Our second perfect week of the season was awesome. The bet of the week was never in doubt, even for a second. South Carolina fully dominated and deserved that win. UCF pulled off maybe the biggest upset of the year, betting against Vanderbilt continues to work, and Northwestern dominated Rutgers at home. Last week moved us to 21-12 on the year, so let’s move to 24-12 with my favorite bets of Week 9.

Bet of the Week

Texas-Mississippi State Under 50.5

Texas comes into this game looking to avoid the SEC curse of winning a big game, then suffering a disappointing loss the following week. Fortunately for the Longhorns, they get to stay at home this week to face a Mississippi State team stumbling into this game on a three-game losing streak. State also just lost star quarterback Kamario Taylor for the season. Billy Puckett, unfortunately for the Bulldogs, has really struggled so far as Taylor’s replacement, scoring only 15 total points in two games, with more total turnovers than touchdowns. Texas comes in with one of the best defenses in the country and an offense that doesn’t put up massive amounts of points against Power Four competition. Texas will look to control the clock and get after Puckett, so give me the under on this game comfortably. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bulldogs didn’t score a point.

Quick Hitters

Oregon State -6

Seeing the Beavers on a bye last week brought me great sorrow. I wasn’t able to bet on my rocks for the first time all year. Best believe we’re betting on them this week. The Beavers travel to Fresno State to face the best team and defense they’ve played since Texas Tech in Week 2. Fresno State, while having a better defense than the teams the Beavers have played recently, has struggled to stop opposing offenses that rank highly in the country. Boise State and USC were both able to comfortably move the ball, and I expect the same to be true for the Beavers. My X-factor for this game will be the most underrated part of this offense, AJ Newberry. Coming off his best game of the year against Wazzu, I look for Newberry to have another big one against the Bulldogs.

UNC +14.5

If there’s one thing Bill Belichick can do, it’s coach a defense. This UNC defense is a legit unit, and the offense is no slouch either. I love this Miami team, but this is a classic close game that shouldn’t be close. On the road against a well-coached team with a good defense, and with a top-five matchup on the horizon next week, I think the Tar Heels catch the Hurricanes napping and give them a closer game than they’re expecting. Don’t forget, either, that UNC did the exact same thing to Notre Dame at home earlier this season.

Iowa -2.5

Iowa had an upsetting loss for fans last week, losing a big rivalry game to Minnesota. The Hawkeyes come home this week with a chance to win another low-scoring affair, with Wisconsin coming to town. If you love the moniker “Big Ten football,” this game is for you. Two teams with high-level defenses and offenses that leave much to be desired. I trust this Hawkeyes team at home much more than the Badgers on the road and see Iowa winning a low-scoring game. I go back to the recipe that’s worked all year for me: a team coming off a big win at home going on the road to face a similarly ranked team. It doesn’t normally go well for the team on the road.

Longshot

Rutgers moneyline

Now this is a real longshot. The Scarlet Knights have been really bad all year, but hear me out. This Michigan offense is just abysmal, and they’re going on the road. I think this Rutgers offense can create a few explosive plays like they did against Northwestern last weekend. KJ Duff has to have a massive game for them to pull off this upset. I think he does. Gimme the Scarlet Knights in one of the biggest upsets of the entire season.

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